任正非：开放合作是打开未来大门的钥匙 | 特邀撰文

美商务部宣布新规，允许美企与华为就5G标准制定进行合作。对此，华为昨晚发表声明回应强调了“愿意与包括美国厂商在内的技术同行就新技术的标准进行坦诚的讨论和交流，为人类社会的科技进步作出贡献”的一贯态度。年初，华为创始人兼CEO任正非就在《经济学人》年度特刊“2020年的世界”发表署名文章指出，如今人类正处于新理论、新技术再一次爆发的前夜，而开放合作才是打开未来大门的钥匙。

《经济学人·商论》一月刊

《我们处在爆炸式创新的前夜》

The World in 20202020年的世界

The coming innovation explosion我们处在爆炸式创新的前夜

The key to the future is open collaboration, says Ren Zhengfei, CEO and founder, Huawei

华为创始人兼CEO任正非认为，开放合作是打开未来大门的钥匙

We at Huawei firmly believe that humanity will enter an intelligent world within the next 20 to 30 years. Society is on the verge of another explosion of new theories and technologies. There is a lot of potential, but also much uncertainty. Many questions remain—and open innovation would be the best way to address them.我们坚信，未来二、三十年人类社会必然走进智能社会。今天，人类社会正处于新理论、新技术再一次爆发的前夜。发展潜力巨大，但也存在诸多不确定性。很多问题依然存在，但开放创新是最好的解决之道。In electronics, chips will continue to scale down to three nanometres and maybe even one nanometre. This evolution will continue, in ways we cannot yet predict, even as Moore’s law becomes obsolete. In the past we thought graphene would be the driver of this evolution, but today we don’t know for sure if this will still be true.电子技术到了3纳米、1纳米后，不会因摩尔定律的失效而停下发展的脚步，还会继续前进，只是前进的实现形式还不知道罢了。我们曾经期望通过石墨烯来实现，但直到今天还不是很清楚。We will surely see significant breakthroughs in genetic technologies over the next two to three decades, which will trigger incredible progress in life sciences, biotechnology and nanomedicine. But how these breakthroughs will change the way people live and work also remains unclear. Molecular science and technology can be used to synthesise materials that never existed before. There is no way of telling what new materials and technologies will emerge. We do know that artificial intelligence (AI) will see ample application, but we cannot predict how it will drive society forward or create more wealth.基因技术在这二、三十年一定有大的突破，它将促使生命科学、生物技术、纳米医疗……的巨大进步，给人类带来的变化还不可知；分子科技可以用来合成前所未有的材料，新材料、新技术不断出现，我们现在完全看不清楚；人工智能在此期间必将得到充分应用，对社会进步的促进和改进，财富的增加形式，还无法构想。Breakthroughs in quantum computing and its widespread application will trigger an explosion of data traffic. Although we know for sure that the impact will be significant, it may not look the way we think. Optical technologies will also be widely applied in various domains.量子计算在这个时期的突破普及，带来信息流量的爆炸，产生的影响，虽然想象得到，但绝对不会是我们想象的样子；光技术在各领域的深入应用……Advances in individual disciplines are creating new opportunities at dizzying rates, but the impact of interdisciplinary breakthroughs will be even more astonishing. All these future innovations will be accompanied by explosive growth in data traffic. We cannot yet foresee what demands there will be when it comes to storage, transmission and processing of these ultra-large quantities of data. What we know for sure is more and more data will be stored and processed in the cloud. But how will we channel this surge in data?单学科技术的进步，给我们带来新的机会，已经让人目不暇接了，而跨学科领域的突破产生的巨大冲击波更令人震撼；任何创新都伴随信息流量的爆炸增长，这些超大容量的数据的存储、传送、处理会是什么需求，不能预测。但可以确定的是，越来越多的数据将存储在云上，并在云上进行处理。洪水般的数据如何疏导？In short, we just don’t know what the structure of our society will look like, how we will adapt to it or how we can keep it under control. All sorts of new ideas and technologies are unfolding right before our eyes. A novel characteristic of this new wave of technological innovation is “chain reactions” that span multiple disciplines. For example, information technologies have become the foundation for scientific research and innovation in all disciplines. Similarly, they have become the foundation for development in every industry.总之，我们不知道未来的社会结构会是什么样的，如何去适应它，驾驭它。各种新思想、新技术都方兴未艾。跨学科的“链式反应”是这一波科技创新的新特征，比如，信息技术已经成为所有领域科学研究创新的基础，如同信息技术已经成为各个产业的基础一样。One thing is clear, though. We must reinforce the infrastructure of the information society. There are two sides to infrastructure: one is hard (the actual technology) and the other is soft (the rules, skills and other things we apply to it).已经明确的是，我们要加强信息社会的基础设施建设。其中，基础有两部分：硬基础（技术本身）、软基础（应用技术所需的规则、技能……）。On the hard side, we have optical networks and 5G in particular, as well as 6G in the future. AI depends on a range of information technologies, and it will struggle to advance without continuous breakthroughs in infrastructure capabilities. That would be like trying to drive cars at high speed without a highway.硬基础，特别是光网与5G的建设，以及未来6G的应用。AI依赖一系列的信息技术，没有基础设施能力的持续突破，就难以进步，这就如同汽车没有高速公路就跑不快一样。On the soft side, we have talent, regulations and so on. The key lies in talent. To embrace this new era, the world as a whole must fully support education, and develop talent of all kinds by creating an environment that allows academic freedom and nurtures freedom of thought.软基础涉及人才、监管等，但关键在于人才，全世界要迎接这个新时代，必须发展教育，在提高全民族文化素质的基础上，在充分的学术自由、思想自由下，培养百花齐放的人才。Follow the data紧随数据Standing at the threshold of the intelligent world, we at Huawei must decide what part we will play in this new social structure in the next 20 or 30 years. We know that the volume of data traffic will be overwhelming in the future, so our strategic direction will be focused on channelling, distributing, storing and processing this massive data traffic. This will be where we will dedicate ourselves over the long term. We must not deviate from this direction, but we can adapt during the different stages of our journey.站在智能社会的门口，我们要展望二、三十年后在这个新的社会结构中扮演什么角色。我们想象得到信息洪水的巨大，疏导巨大信息洪流就是我们公司未来二、三十年的战略定位。疏导分发、存储与处理数据流量，就是我们的战略方向，也是我们长期的奋斗方向，奋斗必须在大方向上要有连续性，在不同阶段应有适应性。A single flower does not make spring. In this vibrant information society, it will be impossible to prevent flowers of all kinds from blooming. At Huawei we will continue to work with companies from around the world to build a strong ecosystem and share its benefits. With a firm commitment to globalisation, we will remain open and collaborate for shared success.一花独放不是春，这么五彩缤纷的信息社会，没有百花齐放是不可能的，我们要坚持开放合作共赢，坚持与全世界公司共建生态，共享生态，坚定不移拥抱全球化。■

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